When my predictions disagree with someone else’s, I prefer to bet instead of argue. As the economist Alex Tabarrok says, A bet is a tax on bullshit. Betting stops people from saying things they don’t actually believe. It’s amazing how, once money is on the line, people suddenly qualify and hedge their statements.

Below are my bets (and some of my attempts to bet), starting with the most recent.

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2020/03 - I bet EnyeWord $100 that SARS-CoV-2 would kill over 25,000 Americans by the end of 2020. Source (archive) On December 5th, 2020, EnyeWord conceded the bet and paid me $100.

2020/03 - I bet Patrick Breitenbach $100 that SARS-CoV-2 would kill over 20,000 Americans by the end of 2020. Source (archive) On April 11th, 2020, I won the bet and Patrick paid me $100.

2020/03 - I bet PolishBearSneeze $100 that SARS-CoV-2 would cause over 250,000 deaths worldwide by the end of 2020. Source (archive) On January 2nd, 2021, PolishBearSneeze paid me $100.

2017/01 - I went back-and-forth with Carl King. He claimed he was willing to bet that President Trump would use nuclear weapons within the next 6 months. Gwern and I were willing to give him 3:1 odds against. Despite being quite active on Twitter, King was rather reluctant to hash out the details. He eventually stopped responding to my requests. 6 months later, no nukes. I called out King on his hypocrisy, which seems to have been well-received.

2016/10 - I bet Aaron Silverbook that upon a Clinton victory in the election, there would be no major unrest. That is: No national guard called up; no curfews or martial law declared. As Clinton did not win the election, our bet was nullified.

2016/09 - I bought $150 worth of Clinton shares on PredictIt at 77 cents per share (77% chance of winning). Clinton lost the election and I lost $150.

2008 - I bought $1,000 worth of Obama shares on Intrade at approximately $7/share (a 70% chance of winning). Obama won the election, netting me around $400.