Bets

When my predictions disagree with someone else’s, I prefer to bet instead of argue. As the economist Alex Tabarrok says, A bet is a tax on bullshit. Betting stops people from saying things they don’t actually believe. It’s amazing how quickly people are to qualify and hedge their statements once incorrectness causes monetary loss.

Below are my bets (and some of my attempts to bet), starting with the most recent.


2017/01 - I went back-and-forth with Carl King. He claimed he was willing to bet that President Trump would use nuclear weapons within the next 6 months. Gwern and I were willing to give him 3:1 odds against. Despite being quite active on Twitter, King was rather reluctant to hash out the details. He eventually stopped responding to my requests. 6 months later, no nukes. I called out King on his hypocrisy, which seems to have been well-received.

2016/10 - I bet Aaron Silverbook that upon a Clinton victory in the election, there would be no major unrest. That is: No national guard called up; no curfews or martial law declared. As Clinton did not win the election, our bet was nullified.

2016/09 - I bought $150 worth of Clinton shares on PredictIt at 77 cents per share (77% chance of winning). Clinton lost the election and I lost $150.

2008 - I bought $1,000 worth of Obama shares on Intrade at approximately $7/share (a 70% chance of winning). Obama won the election, netting me around $400.


Go dark.